Risk of North Korea's miscalculation rises after South's martial law declaration

WASHINGTON — U.S. analysts are warning against a possible provocation by Pyongyang after a short-lived declaration of martial law on Tuesday threw South Korea into political turmoil.

"There's potential for miscalculation on North Korea's part," said Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the U.S. National Intelligence Council, in a phone interview with VOA Korean.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol imposed emergency martial law on his unsuspecting country in a televised address Tuesday evening, saying it was aimed at "eradicating pro-North Korean forces and to protect the constitutional order of freedom."

Surprising move

Under the decree, all political activities, including rallies and demonstrations, were prohibited, while all media became subject to the control of the martial law command.

Soon after Yoon's declaration, a majority of South Korean lawmakers voted to demand the lifting of martial law. Yoon, who was legally obligated to comply with the vote, did so less than six hours after his original declaration.

Seiler said that could leave Yoon looking weak to the North Koreans, who might decide this is "a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation."

Seiler added that one of Kim Jong Un's primary goals is to undermine the U.S.-South Korea relationship and that Kim "may see President [Yoon]'s actions as straining that relationship."

David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, agreed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may try to exploit the situation.

"If Yoon is correct and there are North Korean sympathizers in South Korea, we can expect them to incite violence," Maxwell told VOA Korean via email.

Maxwell worried that this could lead South Korean law enforcement agencies to "inappropriately use force that could cause escalation."

Risk of miscalculation

Robert Rapson, who served as charge d'affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, told VOA Korean via email Tuesday that the U.S. should deliver a "stern warning" to adversaries such as North Korea against trying to take advantage of the situation.

Pyongyang should be reminded that "our ironclad alliance and commitment to defend remains fully in effect," he said.

The United States reaffirmed it will continue to stand by South Korea, a major ally in the Indo-Pacific region, a few hours after Yoon's declaration.

A National Security Council spokesperson told VOA that the Biden administration is "in contact with the [South Korean] government and is monitoring the situation closely as we work to learn more."

The spokesperson added that the U.S. was not notified in advance of Yoon's plans.

"We are seriously concerned by the developments we are seeing on the ground in the ROK," the spokesperson said. ROK is an abbreviation for Republic of Korea, the official name of South Korea.

Kurt Campbell, deputy secretary of state, told reporters at a Washington event previewing Japan's 2025 Osaka Expo: "I do want to underscore that our alliance with the ROK is ironclad, and we stand by Korea in their time of uncertainty."

"We're watching the recent developments in the ROK with grave concern," Campbell said. "We're seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul."

Campbell stressed that the U.S. has "every hope and expectation that any political disputes will be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law."

Yoon has long been suffering from low approval ratings. Last week, his approval slid to 25% after rising for three consecutive weeks, according to a survey.

Meanwhile, the ruling party and the opposition party have been in deadlock for weeks over the government budget bill for 2025.

As of 4:22 a.m. Tuesday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, "so far, there was no abnormal move detected from North Korea," stressing that Seoul's military readiness against North Korea is intact.

Sangjin Cho contributed to this report.