FF and FG to debate next moves today - as possible Independent Alliance 2.0 waits in the wings

FIANNA FÁIL AND Fine Gael, along with Sinn Féin, are due to each hold a meeting of their parliamentary parties today to figure out their next steps when it comes to forming the next government.

The newly elected ‘new kids on the block’ of each party, along with the old guard, will be be in attendance at the meetings in Leinster House. 

It comes as government formation talks kick up a gear, with Labour, the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin all agreeing to hold meetings with each other this week. 

Today’s parliamentary party meetings will be a chance for the leaders to listen to party members about what direction and strategy should be followed in the weeks ahead as talks get underway. 

Another Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil-led coalition is on the cards, due to Fianna Fáil securing the largest number of seats of any party in this election, at 48.

Sinn Féin is the second largest on 39 seats, but Micheál Martin has said he won’t go into coalition with them.

The Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has indicated her preference is to lead a left-wing alliance, however, so far, none of the parties have indicated any receptiveness to such an idea.

Fine Gael are the next largest parliamentary party with 38 seats, meaning there’s a ten seat gap between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Despite this, Fine Gael is understood to want ‘parity of esteem’ with Fianna Fáil, something that will have to be hammered out in the weeks ahead. 

Since the election count concluded, much of the speculation has centred around whether Labour, who were seen as the preferred option for FF/FG, would be interested into going back into government.

However, on Monday, the party indicated that it would not go solo into a government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and would instead require another left-leaning group to join them, with the obvious option being the Social Democrats. 

The Soc Dems have held their cards close to their chests on the matter. It is understood that the feeling within the party is that it should build on its positive performance in the election from the opposition benches rather than run the risk of total annihilation, as has been seen with the Greens. 

Labour and the Soc Dems fear getting monstered by going in with the two larger parties, with the experience of the Greens making them all the more wary. 

So where does that leave us? 

Are we getting the Independent Alliance 2.0?

There is increasing talk that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael might opt to increase their majority by tacking on a few Independents.  

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Who is interested? Well, a question mark hangs over whether the Independent Alliance band is getting back together.

The group was in power with the Fine Gael-led government in 2016, but some of its members have been re-elected to the 34th Dáil, with Galway East TD Sean Canney and the Longford–Westmeath TD Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran headed back to Leinster House.

The third addition to the ‘band’, is Barry Heneghan, who, at 26, is one of the youngest TDs to be elected to the 34th Dáil.

The Dublin Bay North TD is a protégé of Finian McGrath, former Independent TD for the same constituency and junior minister for disability in the 2016-2020 government of Fine Gael and the Independent Alliance. 

McGrath told The Journal that he believes the next government will be made up of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and a handful of Independent candidates. Heneghan’s take? He will take some time to discuss with the “kitchen cabinet” first.

The Journal understands that Heneghan already has his wish-list for whenever he gets the call for government formation talks. 

Canney indicated this week that he is open to supporting the next government, stating that he awaits the call. 

Canney was a junior minister in his last stint in government, and before the ‘rotating Taoiseach’ idea was a thing, he was in a rotating junior ministry with ‘Boxer’ Moran. 

“We were the original of the species, except we didn’t write it down properly,” he joked, referring to a time in 2018 when a dispute arose between the two TDs over whether or not the role would revert back to Canney.

The two men had agreed to rotate the role of Minister of State with responsibility for the OPW and Flood Relief when the current government was formed. Canney began in the role, with Moran taking over in May 2017. In the end, Moran held on to the ministry until the end of that government. 

Independents can create stability

Canney tells The Journal that he takes issue with commentary that having Independents makes for an unstable government, stating that when the Independent Alliance was in government, there was cohesion. 

“That was a stable government for four years. And the reason why the Dáil was dissolved at the time was on the basis that you had a vote of no confidence in the then Minister Simon Harris. Rather than have that vote of no confidence, the Taoiseach decided to go to the country at that time. It wasn’t Independents that created the instability,” he said. 

When asked if an Independent Alliance 2.0 could be on the cards, Canney said it doesn’t necessarily need to be a second independent Alliance, but it could be a gathering of people like the Independent technical group and regional group.

Canney said Indendents who have been sitting on the opposition benches have been “very coheisve over the last five years” and had “a lot of common ground”.

“But what happens is when you go in and you negotiate a programme for government, then you are accepting everything in that programme for government, not just your parts, all of it. There might be things in that programme for government that you mightn’t agree with, but at the end of the day, if you’re getting some of the things done that you feel are needed in the country, that’s what you’re there to do, and you’re trying to get things done,” he said. 

So if he were to support a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael government, would he have a wish list of things for Galway? Canney said there are regional infrastructure issues that need to be tackled, like solving Galway traffic and the western rail corridor, but he added: 

There is a myth out there that Independents have parish pump politics. That’s not true. My biggest issue would be: how can we accelerate the building of houses.

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Coming from a construction background he said there is a plethora of paperwork “strangling the whole system for the sake of accountability and cost benefit”. 

When asked if the larger parties keep to their word and Independents can deliver in government, Canney said:

“I would say yes. When you agree, you can deliver. And if you have a focus on it, you can deliver. Absolutely.”

Fine Gael gene pool

Wexford’s Verona Murphy is also considered one of the “like-minded” TDs that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael might approach to support their government. 

She also argues against the instability narrative regarding independents, attributing it to a campaign of “fear-mongering” during the campaign to prevent them being seen as a viable addition to government. 

She told RTÉ’s Prime Time that she’s been “on the phone for hours and hours” over the last few days. She wouldn’t confirm whether she spoke to anyone in Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.

Murphy was part of the Regional Indpendents Group in the last Dáil. She said the “four remaining members” – herself, Seán Canney, Noel Grealish and Michael Lowry – “and some others” are having talks.

She told The Journal: “My slogan is, I represent people, not parties. I intend to continue doing that. I can do that whilst in government, supporting government, or being a strong opposition.”

“My attitude and that of any elected representative, it’s incumbent on you being elected, particularly with the massive mandate that I have received, to absolutely try and get into government and to try and make a difference.

“I’m not going in at any cost. I’m not going in to be a minister, because it’s not about me. I’m going in if it makes a difference to the problems that are on the ground and if there’s going to be a common sense approach,” she said. 

Murphy would be of the Fine Gael gene pool having been dropped from the Wexford Fine Gael general election ticket in 2019 after a controversial by-election campaign which saw her come in for sustained criticism for her comments about migrants. 

So is there any bad blood with Fine Gael and could she do business with them? 

“I don’t believe so. Not at all, not at all, that’s politics, you deal, I deal. And that’s it.  Everything has to work. And I certainly never hold a grudge, never have, never will, it’s not how I deal.”

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