Moldovans to choose president in decisive runoff overshadowed by fraud claims

Moldovans are casting votes in a decisive presidential runoff on Sunday that pits pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu against a Russia-friendly opponent.

In the first round held on October 20, Ms Sandu obtained 42% of the ballot but failed to win an outright majority.

She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general, who outperformed polls in the first round with almost 26% of the vote.

A poll released by research company iData indicates a tight race that leans towards a narrow Sandu victory, an outcome that might rely on Moldova’s large diaspora.

The presidential role carries significant powers in areas such as foreign policy and national security and has a four-year term.

Moldova’s diaspora played a key role in a nationwide referendum also held on October 20 when a narrow majority of 50.35% voted in favour of securing Moldova’s path towards EU membership.

But the results of the ballots including Sunday’s vote have been overshadowed by allegations of a major vote-buying scheme and voter intimidation.

Instead of winning the overwhelming support that  Ms Sandu had hoped, the results in both races exposed Moldova’s judiciary as unable to adequately protect the democratic process.

On Friday, Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean said that people throughout the country were receiving “anonymous death threats via phone calls” in what he called “an extreme attack” to scare voters in the former Soviet republic, which has a population of about 2.5 million people.

“These acts of intimidation have only one purpose: to create panic and fear,” Mr Recean said in a statement posted on social media. “I assure you that state institutions will ensure order and protect citizens.”

In the wake of the two October votes, Moldovan law enforcement said that a vote-buying scheme was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia last year of fraud and money laundering.

Mr Shor denies any wrongdoing.

Prosecutors say 39 million dollars (£30 million) was paid to more than 130,000 recipients through an internationally sanctioned Russian bank to voters between September and October.

Anticorruption authorities have conducted hundreds of searches and seized more than 2.7 million dollars (£2.08 million) in cash as they attempt to crack down.

In one case in Gagauzia, an autonomous part of Moldova where only 5% voted in favour of the EU, a physician was detained after allegedly coercing 25 residents of a home for older adults to vote for a candidate they did not choose.

Police said they obtained “conclusive evidence”, including financial transfers from the same Russian bank.

On Saturday at a church in Comrat, the capital of Gagauzia, Father Vasilii told the Associated Press that he is urged people to go and vote because it is a “civic obligation” and that they do not name any candidates.

“We use the goods the country offers us — light, gas,” he said.

“Whether we like what the government does or not, we must go and vote. … The church always prays for peace.”

On Thursday, prosecutors also raided a political party headquarters and said 12 people were suspected of paying voters to select a candidate in the presidential race.

A criminal case was also opened in which 40 state agency employees were suspected of taking electoral bribes.

Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told the AP that whatever the outcome of the second round, it “will not deflate” geopolitical tensions.

“On the contrary, I expect geopolitical polarisation to be amplified by the campaign for the 2025 legislative elections,” he said.

Moldovan law enforcement needs more resources and better-trained staff working at a faster pace to tackle voter fraud, he added, to “create an environment in which anyone tempted to either buy or sell votes knows there will be clear and fast consequences”.

A pro-Western government has been in power in Moldova since 2021, and a parliamentary election will be held in 2025.

Moldova watchers warn that next year’s vote could be Moscow’s main target.

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova applied to join the EU. The sharp Westward shift irked Moscow and significantly soured relations with Chisinau.